all problems start with energy problems - we relied on the government and they didn’t deliver

(kah-zik)

The current protests in Kazakhstan definitely qualify as unprecedented in scale & timing; but they are not surprising for those who follow Central Asia. The protests in 2016 and 2019 in KZ were precursors and, for the authorities, missed off-ramps.

"Elbasy" -- the leader of the nation

https://twitter.com/CreativeCorazon/status/1478698243596947460?s=20

What is going on in Kazakhstan?

Dominoes

The string of rallies that has torn through Kazakhstan since January 2 began in the western oil town of Zhanaozen, ostensibly triggered by anger over a sudden spike in the price of car fuel. Similar impromptu gatherings then quickly spread to nearby villages in the Mangystau region and then in multiple other locations in the west, in cities like Aktau, Atyrau and Aktobe. By January 4, people had come out onto the streets in numbers in locations many hundreds of kilometers away, in the southern towns of Taraz, Shymkent and Kyzyl-Orda, in the north, in the cities of Uralsk and Kostanai, as well as in Almaty and Nur-Sultan, the capital, among other places.

https://twitter.com/CreativeCorazon/status/1478693243269398529?s=20

https://twitter.com/pstronski/status/1478752571154214916?s=20

• The Cabinet resigned but that failed to quell the anger of the demonstrators, who have taken to the streets in response to a fuel price increase (removed price caps on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) - resulting in the price to more than double) from the start of the new year.

  • Nazarbaev, 81, ruled the country with an iron fist from its independence in 1991 until 2019, when he abruptly resigned as president and picked Toqaev as his successor.
  • The event that sparked the unrest was the sharp increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the preferred fuel for cars in Kazakhstan's western regions. In Aktau, the capital of the Mangistau region, most automobiles are equipped with an extra LPG tank, which they keep in the trunk. LPG was much cheaper than gasoline and helped maintain transport prices low. A taxi ride in Mangistau used to cost around half as much as in other parts of the country.
    • Many people consider LPG as an alternative to petrol because they believe the combustion of propane results in lower CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, the jury is still out on this matter.
  • The explanation, however, could not convince local residents, who had long suspected that the energy elites of the hydrocarbon-rich regions were fixing prices in an effort to garner higher profits.
    • Suspicions of corruption, diminishing purchasing power, and galloping inflation were all factors in turning the “gas protest” into a full-fledged mass unrest - the oil wealth has not been distributed fairly
      • The nominal average salary in Kazakhstan is around 250,000 tenge ($575), and even that figure is disbelieved by many. But while earnings have stagnated for those on low incomes, the cost of basic staples and real estate have soared in recent years.
      • “We could have lived as well as the people of Dubai thanks to oil revenues, if only they hadn’t been plundered,” she told Eurasianet.

  

  • Reason they removed price caps was because it was causing losses for producers
    • Inflation was ~9% with interest rates at 9.75%
  • So they now have put price controls back on LPG, broadening them to gas, diesel, and other socially important consumer goods
  • There is also a personal bankruptcy law, subsidized rent, and frozen utility prices

But this is of course, not likely about just oil prices

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1478721802964766720?s=20

Zhanaozen protesters made several demands to the authorities:

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1478734475706175493?s=20

1. Regime change
   1. The new leader should not come from the regime
2. Akims of each oblast and city must be elected by the people
   1. since 1991 it has been the prerogative of the president (solely) himself. People want to elect their own representatives who would be accountable to them
   2. Civic activists shouldn't be harassed/targetted